Search results for "Exchange rate volatility"
showing 7 items of 7 documents
Exchange Rate Volatility and FDI in the EMU Neighborhood Countries
2008
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the role of exchange rate volatility in explaining the evolution of FDI inflows in the EMU neighbourhood countries. Examining the question in the framework of an empirical model that considers the major macroeconomic determinants of FDI, the results of the paper suggest that the effect of exchange rate volatility on FDI crucially depends on a country’s degree of openness. In fact, while exchange rate volatility has positive or null effect for relatively closed economies, it has a negative impact on economies with a high level of openness. This result is particularly relevant for transition economies (Emerging Europe and CIS) and is robust to the use o…
The Effect of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility on Real Macroeconomic Performance in the CEE Countries
2011
Working Paper Gate 09-34; International audience; This paper analyzes the relation between nominal exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real per output growth, excess credit, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU Member States. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2008, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth, higher stocks of FDI, higher current account deficits, and higher excess credit. The results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.
Bilateral De-Jure Exchange Rate Regimes and Foreign Direct Investment: A Gravity Analysis
2021
Abstract This paper introduces a novel dataset on bilateral de-jure exchange rate regimes. The new dataset accounts for the fact that officially pegging to one currency is uninformative about the exchange rate regime prevailing vis-a-vis other currencies, and it allows characterizing bilateral exchange rate regimes based on countries’ ex-ante announcements rather than ex-post observations. We use this data to estimate the effect of expected exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI). Starting from a simple model that suggests that announced exchange rate stability enhances bilateral FDI flows, we provide empirical evidence that lends support to this claim: countries that ar…
Exchange Rate Volatility in the Balkans and Eastern Europe: Implications for International Investments
2016
Our paper’s objective is to study the volatility of exchange rates from the region that have not yet adopted the Euro and are not members of the Exchange Rate Mechanism II by considering the exchange rate regime and the implications of currency volatility for foreign capital flows. We model exchange rate volatility by using standard deviations of daily logarithmic changes in the exchange rates, rolling standard deviations, Hodrick-Prescott filters to detect the trends in volatility and ARIMA models. We find that currency volatility remains a strong issue for these countries and that central banks have attempted to manage it, particularly after the global financial crisis. Spikes in monthly …
Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Volatility Spillovers in the MENA Region
2010
In this article, we examine the presence of volatility spillovers between nominal exchange rates and stock returns in three MENA countries: Egypt, Morocco and Turkey. The multivariate GARCH model we use does not produce evidence of cross-market effects for the general stock indices returns. Nevertheless, bidirectional shock and volatility spillovers between exchange rates and stock returns exist at the industry sector level. These findings are more pronounced in Egypt and Turkey. The different results are due to the different exchange rate regimes/policies adopted by the three countries. While exchange rates in Egypt and Turkey were allowed to float, Morocco followed a more tightly managed…
Forecasting Exchange Rates Volatilities Using Artificial Neural Networks
2000
This paper employs Artificial Neural Networks to forecast volatilities of the exchange rates of six currencies against the Spanish peseta. First, we propose to use ANN as an alternative to parametric volatility models, then, we employ them as an aggregation procedure to build hybrid models. Though we do not find a systematic superiority of ANN, our results suggest that they are an interesting alternative to classical parametric volatility models.
Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade: Blooming or Withering Roses?
2013
Abstract Using a gravity model and data on 182 countries worldwide, this paper estimates the effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade for ten years spanning 1980 through 2010. We provide added confirmation and further strengthen the empirical findings in Rose (2000) prior to 1999, but we find a gradually diminishing Rose effect for the 2000-2010 period, when the Euro Zone is added to the currency union dummy. The rest of the coefficients generally comply in magnitude and sign with what is standard in the “gravity” literature. Our findings support a much stronger effect of a currency union on trade than the hypothetical effect of reducing exchange rate v…